Recently, due to the impact of the domestic stock market slump and the Greek debt problems, Shanghai aluminum prices plummeted. The main contract price from 13000 yuan / ton mark, a way below 12000 yuan / ton, a record low of 6 years. Since the government began offering a series of policies to rescue the market, aluminum prices began to rebound. Fang aluminum alloy forging said that due to the domestic capacity is not reduced, high yield, overall market is still oversupply, before the domestic aluminum smelting factory does not appear substantial cuts, every rebound may just floating clouds.

Market demand

For this round of aluminum prices plummeted, the guardian of aluminum alloy forging said in one of the main reasons is that market expectations of aluminum smelter output slowly, the domestic production of high. It is estimated that in June the original aluminum production is still over 2600000 tons, but in July into the traditional consumption season, demand to boost the shortage.

According to the guardian of aluminum alloy forging, the Indonesian government ore export ban, Chinese importers have turned to Malaysia, the Philippines, Australia and other countries, since the first half of this year, China since the country imports of bauxite have substantial growth. According to China's customs data, the Chinese demand for stimulation, the first 5 months of this year, Malaysia's exports to China amounted to 6140000 tons, this year is expected to grow to 8000000 tons. Malaysia has been partially replaced by Indonesia, become the main supplier of China bauxite. At the end of last year, at least 5 Indonesian miners in Malaysia investment, cooperation with local exporters to China's exports of bauxite. In addition, Australia from Indonesia policy benefit, the first five months of this year, China from Australia's imports of bauxite up rose 53%.

According to the guardian of aluminum alloy forging is introduced, the current domestic aluminum market as a whole appear both supply and demand weak situation, under the stimulation of aluminum prices fell, the downstream manufacturers fear fell and afraid of high emotional staggered to suppliers of goods, there is no significant cover goods sell mood, and most of the time in the market transactions relatively light, the sellers not cheap to sell, buy goods not expensive to buy, the market stalemate situation.

Cut is the truth

Fang aluminum alloy forging said recently aluminum prices quickly plummeted resulting in aluminum smelter crisis consciousness, loss making enterprises scale further expand. According to the monitoring data shows Zhuo, after this wave after the crash, the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry average loss rate of 643.5 yuan / ton, compared to the end of June losses increase of 223.7 yuan / ton; capacity of industry losses of 2079.3_wan million tons, industry loss rate reached 65.9%. Still profitable areas are mainly concentrated in Xinjiang, Gansu, Inner Mongolia and other places. At present most of the electrolytic aluminum enterprises have to seize the market research and a large aluminum enterprises take spot insured, seems to be brewing in the markets expect things. At the same time, domestic aluminum prices technical rebound in July 9th amendment has been implemented, aluminum city gradually bullish atmosphere. In addition, the stock market Chinese Jedi, gathered multiple positive, looks like aluminum prices have bottomed rebound well prepared.

But from the current point of view, "hunters" is hard to say whether the arrival time. The Greek debt crisis still heat, the Fed rate hike expectations are rising year, economic growth pressure is still in China. In addition, the current domestic is in the traditional aluminum consumption off-season, the aluminum prices will come again, the off-season bailout also difficult to say. Fang aluminum alloy forging believes that after the move to rescue the market leave the sequelae of the first quarter of this year, once again to rescue the market should not be impulse, refinery production is the truth. If the market is still pile up in excess of requirement situation, the rebound is only temporary.